PUBLICATIONS AND WORKING PAPERS


Squarcina, M., Romano, D.  

Abstract: It is well documented that COVID-19 increased poverty and food insecurity all over the world, especially in fragile contexts. However, it is still unclear how its effects were transmitted to these two outcomes. This paper aims to identify the mechanisms through which COVID-19 affected poverty and food insecurity in refugee-hosting districts in Uganda. We use path analysis with household fixed effects to identify the main pathways, differentiating between refugee and host households, and considering the heterogeneity among them in terms of income source (agricultural vs. non-agricultural households), and market position (food net-buyers vs. net-sellers vs. self-sufficient households). The analysis shows that COVID-19 significantly affected labour participation and increased food value chain disruption, increasing poverty and food insecurity. Refugees have been affected more than hosts by the COVID-19 direct and indirect effects. Host households could benefit from the increase in food prices, while refugees were mainly affected by the effect on the labour market. As expected, net-buyers are the group most affected by food value chain disruption and, along with non-agricultural households, the ones that were most affected in terms of food security. 


Squarcina, M., Romano, D.

Abstract: The effects of COVID-19 have been highly heterogeneous, crucially depending on household livelihoods. In the context of households reliant on agri-food systems, the extent of these effects significantly depends on their position within the value chain. An assessment of the COVID-19 effects along the agri-food value chain and the identification of pivotal factors influencing these outcomes are key for designing appropriate responses and targeting the population most in need should a crisis akin to COVID-19 emerge in the future. Using a longitudinal dataset from Ethiopia, composed of a pre-COVID baseline and six follow-up phone-based surveys, this paper estimates the COVID-19-induced change in household income and job participation, tracing its evolution seven months after the pandemic onset. Applying both longitudinal and cross-sectional econometric models, we show that the COVID-19 shock reduced both employment and income, with increasingly negative impacts over time. Despite initial resilience in the face of restrictive measures, farming eventually emerged as the most affected segment within the agri-food value chain over the medium term. Access to formal institutions such as insurance and credit services, formal contractual arrangements, and secured land ownership titles played a key role in mitigating the likelihood of income loss. 



Squarcina, M., Carraro, A., Otchere, F., Richardson, D.


Richardson, D., Carraro, A., Squarcina, M., Flores Tavares, F., Rees, G.

Abstract: Children and families throughout the European Union are facing a cost-of-living crisis that has eroded living standards to such an extent that up to an additional 3 million children in 26 EU countries are now living in conditions equivalent to relative income poverty. For families and children in the EU, the cost-of-living crisis is being experienced primarily through higher prices for food and energy. In addition, increasing interest rates make borrowing less affordable, placing a growing strain on the sustainability of businesses, mortgages, loans and government debt. This research brief presents the first results of an analysis of how the cost-of-living crisis has affected the poverty experienced by households with children in the European Union (EU). It takes account of sharply increasing food and energy prices to calculate the additional number of children living in poverty, in real terms, due to the crisis. The brief also recommends that policymakers and governments protect children and families with steps that include expanding and index-linking child cash benefits to cover the needs of families, implementing guarantees to provide free meals for children in schools and providing services that prevent ‘holiday hunger’ when schools are closed in the summer months. 


Squarcina, M., Egger, E.-M.

Abstract: This study investigates the short-term impacts of an aggregate socioeconomic shock on household food consumption and children’s nutrition using the case of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mozambique. In response to the economic downturn, households are expected to adjust their food choices both in terms of quality, towards cheaper and unhealthier food, and quantity, reducing diet diversification and increasing the exposure to malnutrition, mainly for children. Empirical evidence on such immediate effects is still scarce, mainly due to a lack of data. This paper aims to fill the evidence gap by relying on household survey data from 2019–20, which includes a detailed consumption module and anthropometric measures for children under five. We use a repeated cross-sectional econometric analysis to look at the variation in household food consumption and child nutrition before and after the pandemic. The results show that there has been a significant reduction in household food consumption and per capita caloric intake and an increase in stunting, especially among newborn children. 



Carraro, A., Ferrone, L. and Squarcina, M. 


Benfica, R., Squarcina, M., and de la Fuente, A.



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